Walmart’s stock has shown impressive resilience lately, climbing about 6% following its strong third-quarter earnings report. While the retail sector faces headwinds like inflation and potential tariffs, the company seems well-positioned to attract budget-conscious shoppers across all income levels. However, some areas like Sam’s Club sales raised minor flags, suggesting not everything is picture-perfect.
Key Performance Highlights
Walmart posted revenue of $179.5 billion for the quarter, beating expectations and marking a solid 5.8% year-over-year increase. Adjusted earnings per share hit $0.62, up nearly 7% from last year, with e-commerce leading the charge at 27% global growth.
Strategic Moves Ahead
The retailer is boosting its full-year sales forecast to 4.8%-5.1%, reflecting optimism for the holiday season. A notable shift includes moving its stock listing from NYSE to Nasdaq starting December 9, emphasizing its tech-forward approach.
Potential Risks
Tariffs could nudge prices higher on certain imports, but Walmart’s focus on efficiency and low prices might help cushion the blow. Consumer sentiment in a tricky economy remains a key factor to watch.
As the holiday rush kicks into gear, Walmart is emerging as a standout in the retail world, blending its traditional strengths in value shopping with savvy digital innovations. On November 20, 2025, the company unveiled its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results, which not only surpassed analyst predictions but also highlighted its adaptability in a landscape marked by economic uncertainty. Shares reacted positively, surging around 6% in early trading to hover near $107, pushing the market cap toward $860 billion and reflecting broad investor approval.
Diving into the numbers, Walmart’s total revenue reached $179.5 billion, a 5.8% jump from the prior year—or 6.0% when stripping out currency effects. This topped the consensus estimate of $177.4 billion. Adjusted operating income grew 8.0% on a constant currency basis, though the reported figure dipped slightly by 0.2% due to some one-time items. The adjusted EPS of $0.62 edged out forecasts by a few cents and rose 6.9% year-over-year. These metrics paint a picture of a retailer that’s not just surviving but thriving, particularly in essentials like groceries while making inroads in discretionary categories.
E-commerce was a real star here, with global online sales up 27%—continuing a streak of robust growth. In the U.S., that figure hit 28%, thanks to enhancements in delivery speed: over a third of store-fulfilled orders now ship in under three hours, and expedited sales channels have ballooned nearly 70%. Sam’s Club e-commerce grew 22%, but its overall comparable sales (excluding fuel) came in at 3.8%, which some viewed as underwhelming, sparking a brief dip in premarket sentiment before the broader positives took hold. On the international front, net sales climbed 11.4% in constant currency, with operating income up 17%. Markets like India via Flipkart, China through Sam’s Club, and Mexico with Walmex were pivotal, underscoring the value of Walmart’s expansive global network.
Membership initiatives are proving to be a clever hook for customer retention. Worldwide membership income increased 17%, with Walmart+ drawing gains from every income bracket. In the U.S., Sam’s Club saw membership income rise 7.1%, bolstered by higher renewals and new sign-ups. This Prime-like strategy is fostering loyalty in an era where shoppers are picky about where they spend.
Another growth engine is advertising, which skyrocketed 53% globally, including boosts from the VIZIO buyout. Walmart Connect in the U.S. alone grew 33%, turning customer insights into profitable ad revenue—a smart, high-margin play that’s helping balance out cost pressures.
For the full year, Walmart has revised its outlook upward: net sales growth now pegged at 4.8% to 5.1% (from 3.75% to 4.75%), and adjusted EPS at $2.58 to $2.63 (up from $2.52 to $2.62). In what was his last earnings call, CEO Doug McMillon—who steps down February 1, 2026, for John Furner—expressed confidence in the trajectory. He highlighted market share expansions, especially among higher earners (over $100K households contributing two-thirds of gains). “Our teams are delivering for customers with innovative experiences and strong results,” the earnings release noted. Key to this are tech investments: automation now handles over 60% of U.S. store freight and more than half of e-commerce fulfillment, trimming expenses and speeding operations.
Yet, challenges lurk. With inflation lingering and jobs cooling, shoppers are deal-hunting more than ever. Tariffs on imports loom large, potentially inflating costs for items like electronics or outdoor gear. CFO John David Rainey admitted during the call that while efficiencies might absorb some hits, price hikes could follow in spots. Walmart holds a commanding 26% of U.S. grocery market share, including significant SNAP reliance, which might snag if government funding stalls. Analysts like those at Bokeh Capital commended the performance despite these factors, noting absent SNAP boosts and tepid consumer moods didn’t derail the quarter.
In an intriguing development, Walmart is swapping its NYSE listing for Nasdaq come December 9, 2025. Leadership sees this as aligning with its tech evolution—think AI for better inventory, search, and ads. It’s more than a venue change; it’s a statement on where the company sees its future.
Year-to-date, Walmart stock has gained roughly 11%, besting the S&P 500 Consumer Staples index, which is down slightly. The 52-week range spans $79.81 to $109.58, with recent trades around $107.30. Trailing metrics show return on assets at 8.4% and ROI at 14.8%, backed by $27.5 billion in operating cash flow and $8.8 billion free. Compared to peers, Walmart shines: while Target and Home Depot faltered in their reports, Walmart’s value proposition resonates in tough times.
| Business Segment | Q3 Revenue Growth (%) | E-Commerce Growth (%) | Comparable Sales Growth (ex-fuel, %) | Notable Insights |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart U.S. | 5.8 | 28 | 4.5 | Rapid delivery innovations; broad income appeal |
| Sam’s Club U.S. | N/A | 22 | 3.8 | Membership up 7.1%; some softness noted |
| International | 11.4 (const. curr.) | 26 | N/A | Key contributions from India, China, Mexico; memberships +34% |
| Global Ads | 53 | N/A | N/A | VIZIO integration; U.S. Connect +33% |
Heading into Black Friday, early signals from back-to-school and Halloween sales point to steady demand. Walmart’s ramped-up deals and Walmart+ expansions aim to snag more holiday spending. But with economic variables like tariffs and fatigue in play, agility will be crucial.
Ultimately, this report signals a retailer that’s evolving—melding brick-and-mortar reliability with digital smarts to stay ahead. Investors are buying in, but the proof will come in navigating what’s next. For now, it’s a solid step forward that has the market taking notice.
